Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.015405 0.017434 0.019647 0.022243 0.025207 0.028491 0.032411
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.012426 0.015235 0.018570 0.022832 0.028153 0.034601 0.043043
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.010816 0.013986 0.017966 0.023356 0.030505 0.039717 0.052573
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009374 0.012650 0.016954 0.023063 0.031574 0.043107 0.060081
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008300 0.011618 0.016150 0.022847 0.032587 0.046380 0.067647
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007451 0.010771 0.015467 0.022662 0.033535 0.049555 0.075321
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.006956 0.010363 0.015338 0.023222 0.035574 0.054466 0.086093
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006337 0.009697 0.014745 0.022993 0.036341 0.057461 0.094126
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006034 0.009476 0.014794 0.023744 0.038695 0.063151 0.107164
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005440 0.008737 0.013958 0.022973 0.038459 0.064541 0.112996
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005001 0.008209 0.013406 0.022605 0.038839 0.066965 0.120856
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004526 0.007576 0.012624 0.021766 0.038302 0.067711 0.125692
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004376 0.007488 0.012765 0.022567 0.040799 0.074199 0.142228
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004201 0.007343 0.012792 0.023169 0.043000 0.080387 0.158993
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004030 0.007188 0.012786 0.023701 0.045108 0.086600 0.176552
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003756 0.006821 0.012363 0.023403 0.045569 0.089626 0.187847
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003518 0.006502 0.012001 0.023184 0.046154 0.092944 0.200152
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003306 0.006214 0.011672 0.022996 0.046777 0.096387 0.213133
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003202 0.006125 0.011718 0.023565 0.049027 0.103486 0.235297
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003015 0.005858 0.011390 0.023332 0.049538 0.106864 0.249188
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.002949 0.005827 0.011531 0.024095 0.052292 0.115500 0.276830
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002729 0.005467 0.010976 0.023312 0.051513 0.116015 0.284447
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002567 0.005215 0.010623 0.022938 0.051627 0.118605 0.297640